World Cup Betting Preview: Brazil v South Korea

Outright Betting Market Analysis

The Round of 16 is about to begin for Brazil. The Brazilian team is the favourite team to win the World Cup in the outright market right now, even though France has already progressed to the quarter-finals after beating Poland yesterday.

The best explanation for the fact that Brazil’s odds to lift the trophy now are 3.49 on average, while France has 5.43 is that the market perceives Brazil’s path to potentially reaching the semi-finals easier than the French situation.

France, however, already has to face England in the quarter-finals, while Brazil will face either Japan or Croatia if they beat South Korea today.

Match Analysis: Brazil v South Korea

Brazil has some problems in the defense. Dani Alves proved to be in poor shape as many suspected in the last game against Cameroon. Brazil doesn’t have any proper left back for this game, with both Alex Sandro and Alex Telles having picked injuries.

The Brazilians are expected to field Danilo as a left back, which may work well as the player has been used as a left centre-back when Juventus uses 3 CBs during this season in the Italian Serie A.

But on the right side of the pitch, Militão will be used as a right back. The problem with that is Son could be lethal with his speed at any moment.

Of course, I see Brazil as favourites, but the Asian Handicap market situation is not correct in my opinion

Betting Preview: Brazil v South Korea

In the 1×2 market, Brazil now has odds of 1.28 to win, the match draw has average odds of 5.8, and the victory of South Korea 12+.

While some may argue that the odds for the victory of Brazil could be in the house of 1.5, the Asian Handicap has big odds for South Korea in my opinion.

I already considered a few days ago South Korea +1.5 @1.93 a good bet, and now we can buy S. Korea +1.75@1.87 on average!

This is the usual reason why I like big handicaps, I believe Brazil won’t attack that much as early as 60′ or 70′ if they are ahead by one goal.

The Brazilians were also not that good in the first half against Switzerland and we don’t know for sure how Neymar will be in this game.

I believe South Korea is being underestimated, and backing them to lose by only one, and only losing the bet with a 2 or 3 goals score against them, with the +1.5 and +1.75 lines, respectively, sounds like an interesting bet.

In the over/under AH market we have odds of 1.93/94 to both over and under 2.75 goals. While I’m cautious to see Brazil overcoming a big handicap, I also believe the man marking in their midfield is not as keen as recommended, and we have a defense with adaptations being fielded later today. As a result, I believe these lines to be about correct and I don’t see any particular value here.


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